Portions of this article originally appeared in Industry Week.

The last two years have been the most volatile period in the history of commercial aviation. In 2018, Boeing and Airbus hit a combined 1,860 aircraft deliveries, with a continued expectation of an increase in production. In contrast, global passenger demand dropped by nearly seventy percent at the onset of the pandemic in 2020, according to IATA. This marked the largest year-over-year decline.

The evaporation of global passenger demand sent the industry into turmoil. A bifurcated recovery occurred in 2021 with passenger demand surging in large domestic markets such as China, Russia, the United States, and Brazil. Such an uptick was fueled by pent-up demand. Meanwhile, long-haul international travel remains in the doldrums with passenger demand still down 68% in late December 2021.

The pandemic has challenged all the recent norms and forecasting capabilities of the aerospace industry. From 2004 until 2018, aerospace manufacturers enjoyed nearly continuous production rate increases and new program introductions. Early in the pandemic, the V-shaped recovery and quick recertification of the Max were the darling headlines of the industry journals. This signaled the trends hoped for by many analysts and market players. Boeing and Airbus both kept their options open by maintaining production rates within the supply chain, consciously allowing their balance sheets to balloon, maintaining supply chain cohesion, and positioning themselves to recover as soon as the world returned to normal. At the same time, every approach has its limits. For example, when COVID restrictions resurged at the onset of the Omicron variant, the industry had to once again navigate the imposition of travel restrictions, lockdowns, and flight cancellations.

Looking toward the second half of 2022, predictions continue to be tentative. At the same time, here are prevailing themes that can frame expectations:

Liquidity in the supply chain will inhibit production rate increases.