The market is still reeling from the effects of the coronavirus. Total oil demand in 2020 is expected to average 92.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), down by 7.9 mb/d compared to 2019, before recovering by 5.3mb/d in 2021. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that it will take two or more years for oil demand to fully recover, principally due to a decrease in demand for transportation fuels. In the July 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that “US consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels will average 18.9 million barrels per day in the second half of 2020, up from an average of 17.7 million barrels per day in the first half of 2020.” There is optimism that output cuts by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will help ease the oversupply of crude in the market and stabilize commodity prices. As global demand for oil recovers in the coming months, the EIA expects global oil inventories to decline through the end of 2021, which will help eliminate the surplus accrued throughout the year.
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